Welcome to the world in 2021. The three key trends we believe will shape 2021 are Recovering from COVID-19 : As in times of war, the rules of the game are simply different during a global pandemic. There is no official date for Kim Jong Un’s accession to power after the death of his father, and no well-established practice for marking it or his father’s death. As the Biden-Harris administration takes stock of the security challenges ahead, several important geopolitical trends are on the horizon. Companies should assess their exposure to such risks and seek to understand likely post-electoral changes in policy direction, depending on which candidates are elected. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. Monitor key regulatory trends relevant to businesses, including on environmental regulation, economic stimulus and pandemic management. US – China: Stabilization without Normalization. This year's report is available here. However, UK have two opportunities to come up as world leader in 2021 as it is hosting G-7 meeting and postponed UN climate change summit COP26. Monitor social sentiment and plan for continued political and regulatory change in the next year. But a fragmented and competitive exit from the pandemic will test relations between business, governments and society. If Scottish National party won the parliament elections a new independence referendum will be back on agenda and will be another headache for the PM. The Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei also thinks that it will best serve Iran’s security and economic interests. Companies should plan for potential disruption in Beirut, including the possibility of localised violence. Dambisa Moyo explains the impacts of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and social trends that are prevalent today, especially the decrease of GDP. US President Joe Biden’s inauguration have ended a volatile period in US-Iran relations. Now question arises that will London position itself as a low-regulation, low-tax centre, or will it prioritize legislation to protect British businesses? These will be the first major electoral test for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its new leader since long-time prime minister Abe Shinzo left office in 2020. The Middle-East in 2021: 4 Important Trends in Regional Geopolitics. These will be the fourth parliamentary elections for Israel in two years. A robust foreign policy is necessary to overthrow Trump’s “America First” projection retreat from international & multilateral institutions such as NATO. If it flops, and the country’s health and economic emergency extends deep into 2021, Republican opposition will intensify and grow more rigid. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. Share: Image. Companies should consider alternative scenarios and assess any resultant political or regulatory risk. Geopolitical competition in Africa has been intensifying, with private-sector investors increasingly finding that the competitive landscape is shaped by geopolitics. After meeting the domestic tumults of Covid both countries will again come face to face. Three geopolitical themes shaping the post-COVID-19 world. Even as the data-driven 5G and AI revolutions gain steam, other governments concerned about who is accessing their citizens’ data—and how—will erode the foundation of the open global internet. Companies should continue to monitor triggers for potential political instability. Ukraine will work hard to secure a high-level Normandy Summit meeting with Russia, Germany and France to discuss resolving the war in the east. Re-assess conflict scenarios and expect potential further ballistic missile tests and escalation of rhetoric. The six-year anniversary of the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention in Yemen could trigger a renewed push by the UN to broker peace but may also bring renewed scrutiny by the US of Saudi Arabia’s participation in the conflict. Businesses should seek to understand alternative scenarios for security in the Korean peninsula and any security or business implications these might trigger. An independent analysis of current global geopolitical and macroeconomic events with a Christian perspective. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both 'the worst of times and the best of times' for the stock market, said analysts. This risk doesn’t end with the US and China or Iran & Israel. Companies should assess the impact of alternative electoral scenarios on regulatory and political risk. Apr 7, 2021 Crude Oil Prices Struggle After Dual Crises, but Long-term Bullish Potential Remains Apr 7, 2021 USD/CAD Technical Overview: Trying to Snap the Downtrend The Committee may provide indications that CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping is planning to break with convention at the 2022 congress by remaining in power beyond his second five-year term. After a major tightening of Beijing’s control over the territory since 2020, including cracking down on opposition politicians and activists, if and how elections in Hong Kong proceed will be highly contentious. An inflection point is coming between business and climate change in 2021. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. From witnessing gigantic losses to record-shattering gains, investors went on a roller-coaster ride amid pandemic. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will likely signal her succession plans. This is particularly important in the current environment, in which COVID-19 is acting as a great accelerator for geopolitical trends. There are many opportunities in Post Covid-19 world but first the world leaders should unite to fight the Covid-19 for humanity keeping their own interests beside. These will likely set tone for Pyongyang’s foreign policy in the Biden era after unprecedented engagement with Trump in 2018-19. The first presidential and parliamentary elections since the 2019 protest wave will shape the country’s outlook for the following four years and beyond. Foreign criticism of the government’s handling of the polls could fuel tensions between China and other countries. The countries in Southeast Asia will have to choose the sides more wisely whereas Europe and MENA will try to stay neutral. Key trends include regional economic downturns in most key markets apart from China, as the full impact of Covid’s cost hits, heightened use of key global summits to re-establish US influence, possibly leading to increased trade and global health policy tensions. On this episode of the BlackRock Bottom Line, Catherine Kress, Advisor to the Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute, highlights three themes that will shape the post-COVID-19 world. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will likely play up Hindu nationalist themes in Assam and West Bengal. Italy as host wants to prioritise gender equality and sustainable development, with a particular emphasis on Africa. However, the younger Kim marking a decade in power will be a significant milestone, which he could choose to highlight with major events, propaganda or weapons tests. Despite the impacts of Covid, initial signs suggest that government will balance between the two. The new year will start with mobilization of a … The new year begins with good news of vaccine. Oil Prices Crash by 8% on Geopolitical Tensions, Recovery Woes ... Mar 18, 2021 at 5:12PM ... the price of crude oil is still up by 20% for the year and the long-term trends appear to … Global Mobility Today Global Mobility Trends Regional Mobility Trends. Elections in Hong Kong are currently scheduled for September, but highly likely to be delayed due to planned electoral reforms. With President Joe Biden in office in the US, the prospects for its renewal are significantly improved. This election cycle will coincide with the second anniversary of President Narendra Modi’s re-election and will serve as a mid-term referendum on his leadership. The Center is engaged in a constant endeavor to understand the various dimensions of the prevailing global trends. People are optimistic that life will be back to normal. With Brexit done and dusted, Covid-19 vaccine is on its way and predicted President in the Oval office, 2021 should by rights be an easier year for EU. If the vaccine rollout proceeds as hoped, Biden may win some political capital. The vaccines will develop in west and will be rolled out in Europe, North America & Middle East. 1 Fights over vaccines. Assess scenarios for Somalia’s future as a potential investment destination. Biden will outline his immediate policy agenda. People are optimistic that life will be back to normal. Companies should re-assess the willingness of the international community to re-engage with his government and any implications this could have on the extensive sanctions regime placed on doing business with Syria. On 20 Jan 2021 President Joe Biden occupied the Oval Office. Around the election period, companies should assess and monitor potential risks from the geopolitical level (such as reputational or sanctions risks from US and other responses) and the local security level (with potential for protests, or disruption related to heightened security). The two Dutch think tanks stress that the time is now for Europe to adopt a more assertive geopolitical stance as a nascent world power, […] Re-evaluate scenarios for the outlook of geopolitical security in the region following the change of power in the White House and expect a potential spike in state-sponsored cyber attacks. This also has the potential to inform its sovereign risk ratings as well as relations with China and other creditors like India and Japan. Overview. Seasoned Macro Economist and Strategist Christian Takushi offers a compact and efficient online seminar, where Christian business leaders as well as church/ministry leaders can ask their questions. Recovery elsewhere is expected to be uneven, with much of the world not reaching pre-pandemic GDP levels until 2022, including probably the United States and Europe. Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021 Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021. Biden is also starting negotiations to join Nuclear Deal (JCPOA). But looking at its internal issues it seems that 2021 will be a tricky one for Europe. Long Covid-19 & Fight over Vaccine. But increase in connectivity comes with certain threats. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can be a “game-changer,” but a lot more have to be done to refine the policies in 2021. Companies should seek to assess the potential regulatory and foreign policy trajectory of alternative future governments, particularly around emissions regulations in the likely event that the Green party will be part of the ruling coalition. Description. A combination of low-probability, high-impact risks and inexorable technology trends make 2021 the year that cyber conflict will create unprecedented technological and geopolitical risk. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has seen his ambitious reform agenda hindered by widespread ethnic violence, political tensions and internal conflict with the Tigray regional state. Beijing will be determined to avoid major problems or instability around this milestone. In 2021, we expect global interconnectivity and the very architecture of the internet to come under significant stress – not just from increased usage, but from fundamental rifts in the world’s technology infrastructure. Looking abroad it will be hard for EU to pick up sides in US – China tensions. While the full ambition of ACFTA – a continent-wide single market in goods and services – will not be achieved quickly, the direction of travel is important. 2021 will be an uneven year. Russia is likely to protest the exercise as a provocation. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. The Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, and Social Trends Defining Our World | Dambisa Moyo | February 2021 - YouTube. Businesses should monitor events and diplomatic exchanges leading up to the summit to assess the likelihood of a reduction in security and operational threats for businesses in the region, © Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd registration no.01548306, This website uses anonymous cookies to improve your experience of our website. ... Options for investor migrants are likely to proliferate in 2021 in response to the growing demand, particularly in emerging markets. The opposition will likely capitalise on the current government’s dwindling popularity and increase its seats in both houses in Congress. Sri Lanka’s ability and political will to service this debt will signal the country’s overall commitment to external liabilities. Assess scenarios for Somalia’s future as a potential investment destination. President Xi Jinping appears to consider this an important opportunity to proclaim the CPC’s historical achievements and mission, and perhaps his own status and legacy. Published. April 7 – Composite and Services PMI data released in United Kingdom. Regional Mobility Trends. Although President Yoweri Museveni is likely to win the presidential elections – extending his 35-year rule – growing dissatisfaction with him and his National Resistance Movement is likely to prompt unrest and has significant implications for his eventual succession. Find predictions, insights and analysis on global outlook, markets and geopolitics. If held in early 2021, they will mark an important step towards improving political stability. For instance, how geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy play out in 2021 is likely to affect the global business environment for years to come. The summit is expected to focus on socioeconomic recovery from the pandemic and fighting climate change. The position of Boris Johnson is also threatened as he seems to move away from conservative party from Brexit policies. The incoming administration is likely to face a splintered congress, and populist reform proposals may pose risks to the business environment. 4. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. EU have set goals to achieve net zero emission by 2050, china by 2060. The post Brexit transition period is over and UK is fully outside of EU’s structures. The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. COVAX alliances will start to distribute vaccines to third world countries. Vaccine, Geopolitical Trends, Budget To Be Major Drivers For Indian Equities In 2021. Since last year’s event we have experienced truly extraordinary times both economically and politically. The overall effect of viewing fragile states through a geopolitical lens is likely to erode limited progress has been made on fragile states' stability and responsive governance. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Jupiter Ingress into Pisces in 2021. Geopolitical trends and forecasts Middle East and North Africa. Companies should monitor monetary and fiscal policy and evaluate sovereign risks. At present the biggest geopolitical issue is likely to be the situation between the UK and Ireland and the status and treatment of Northern Ireland. These insights can better inform strategic decisions that include M&A, market entry and exit as well as other transactions. The FOCAC summit will provide a clear indication of how China – one of the largest players in Africa – intends to approach the continent and whether the pandemic has changed this approach. A year of unrest at Russia’s Borders (CIS). Businesses must assess the potential longer-term implications on post-COVID economic recovery given the prospect of further gridlocks over government formation. Businesses should anticipate heightened political sensitivities in the run-up to and during the anniversary celebrations, with pressure on officials to avoid controversy or disruption. Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. Elections in Somalia have been repeatedly delayed and once again failed to take place in December 2020 amid disputes between central and regional governments. The webinar was held January 26 2021. Re-assess your political exposure and hedge where possible. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Saturn Ingress into Aquarius in 2020. Biden Administration is also planning to re-join Paris agreement and participate in UN’s COP26 in Nov 2021. A potential victory for the opposition will elevate political and macro-economic risks. While this will not lead to armed conflict, these tensions have already led to cyber attacks and could have ramifications for both countries’ wider international relations. Anything that is in Air is not safe. The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) will convene its five-yearly Congress and confirm its new political leadership. Americas ... Key Trends for 2021. But a fragmented and competitive exit from the pandemic will test relations between business, governments and society. April 7 – Composite and Services PMI data released in United Kingdom. The biggest impact that technology will have on geopolitics for 2021 (and beyond) will not primarily come from the technology itself, but rather from the system that surrounds it. Companies should assess and monitor how geopolitical relations with China may impact deals and financing in their sector of operation. The dry season in the Amazon rainforest is likely to drive deforestation rates upwards again, renewing concerns about ESG risks and increasing reputational scrutiny on companies operating in the region. Body. The elections will decide Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor, with implications for EU unity as well as EU trade, environment and foreign policy. Broader political and policy stability remains unlikely, but businesses should start assessing the potential outcomes of various succession scenarios. However, in mid of 2021 Iran is also having its own presidential elections and President Hassan Rouhani can’t run for a third term. Continued political deadlock and economic distress in Lebanon will lead to an emotional anniversary, as well as the potential for significant protests and unrest. COP26 will take place in Glasgow (UK) a year later than scheduled, having been postponed due to COVID-19. The continent has the youngest population due to which it should be the centre of the world. The main concern for investors interested in Iran this year will be whether US sanctions will be lifted to an extent which allows global companies to do business in Iran. One way or another, 2021 will be the year that this matter finally moves on and the continent will discover what problems translate from the theoretical to reality once the final details crystallise. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. As 2021 approaches, here are ten trends to watch in the year ahead. Leaders will set the tone for domestic policies for the rest of the year, and the NPC will approve a new Five-Year Plan for economic and social development in the 2021-25 period. Understand the outlook for international relations between the US and key partners (Canada, Europe) as well as rivals (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea) and the implications on trade, sanctions and the effectiveness of international organisations. Companies should assess the implications of the election result on Argentina’s policy and regulatory volatility, especially in relation to subsidies and price controls. Prepare for operational disruption from potential widespread unrest, as well as increased reputational and sanctions risks in the event of a heavy-handed response by security forces, which would attract criticism from the US and Europe. Long Covid-19 & Fight over Vaccine. Russia & China will also develop vaccine and fill the markets. With President Joe Biden in office in the US, the prospects for its renewal are significantly improved. These were the top trends selected by analysing the geostrategic policies, national interests of superpowers and other intangible factors. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 … Continued development of the dam will increase tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. 2020 will likely bear witness to Washington’s continued retreat from multilateralism on a gradual but steady glide path toward moderate isolationism. Event Details When: January 28, 2021 9 AM - 10 AM GMT Add to Calendar. Biden will mend relations with its allies to wage trade war and Beijing will pursue its ambitious goals. With Morocco’s diplomacy dominating the headlines it is easy to overlook regional issues. The departure of Trump will alter the face of geopolitics and global crisis. April 6 – The US Energy Information Administration releases its monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will signal supply and demand trends in the US and global markets. The potential for increased activity by the armed opposition will raise the likelihood of additional sanctions by the US/EU. Businesses should assess new climate pledges made by countries in the months leading up to the conference and understand the pace and reach of any regulatory changes as a result of these pledges. 4. The president faces more domestic issues than external. Africa’s market has advantage in 2021 and beyond because it is the continent least affected by Covid-19. 2021 trends include: the growth of racially & ethnically motivated terrorism, violent anti-government extremism, great power competition and COVID19. Businesses that rely on government contracts should expect delays due to the government’s inability to pass a state budget. 20 minutes analysis followed by 30 minutes Q&A. This will be a poignant and emotional moment for Armenians, for whom the terms of the ceasefire are widely seen as a national humiliation. These insights can better inform strategic decisions that include M&A, market entry and exit as well as other transactions. After COVID-19 forced postponement of the Summer Olympic Games in 2020, the government, organisers, sponsors, and participating countries are likely to face difficult decisions in the run-up to the Games as the pandemic persists. Look ahead to the geopolitical events that will shape your world in 2021. The Macroeconomic, Geopolitical, and Social Trends Defining Our World | Dambisa Moyo | February 2021 Next Devotional: Elder Gary E. Stevenson Elder Gary E. Stevenson, a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, will deliver the devotional address on Tuesday, March 2, at 11:05 a.m. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. Assess the impact of government and economic instability as fallout from COVID and Brexit dominate. Following an unpopular constitutional referendum and questions over President Abdelmedjid Tebboune’s health, the anniversary could spark renewed protests. These elections will mark a crossroads, resulting in either the advent of a more business-friendly opposition administration, or marking a further erosion of Zambia’s democratic reputation if widespread vote rigging occurs. Given President Vladimir Putin’s declining approval ratings and growing public discontent with the economic slowdown, the elections will be a significant test for Putin and put pressure on political stability. Failure to hold them would be a significant backwards step for Somalia’s prospects. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come. 1 Fights over vaccines. Considering a notable reduction in ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine in late 2020, the summit could yield some progress in the peace talks. Yesterday, HCSS and the Clingendael Institute presented their Strategic Monitor, “Geopolitical Genesis: Dutch Foreign and Security Policy in a Post-COVID World”, providing insight into trends and developments in world politics. As 2021 approaches, here are top geopolitical and security trends to follow in 2021. Initially scheduled for early 2020, but postponed due to COVID-19, the NATO exercise will be the largest for US forces in 25 years, testing their capability to deploy large numbers of troops across the Atlantic. TRENDS Research & Advisory has a Barometer Department, which conducts studies and surveys, analyzing geopolitical, economic, and cognitive opportunities and challenges. April 6 – The US Energy Information Administration releases its monthly short-term energy outlook report, which will signal supply and demand trends in the US and global markets. In case of China the only difference that President Biden makes is change of tone rest all is same or may be tougher. Let’s see how COVAX alliances will be formed. The risks will affect local, state-owned and private companies, and, in some instances, their foreign partners and investors. Ten years after the revolution that led to the overthrow of Mubarak, signs of unrest are reappearing amid poor economic conditions and repression of freedom of expression. Shifting US foreign policies on everything from trade to aid have created uncertainty among our allies, and has contributed to a deceleration in global growth and … IntelBrief: Geopolitical Trends that Will Pose Challenges to the Biden Administration President-elect Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden are joined by Vice President-elect Kamala Harris and her husband Doug Emhoff during a COVID-19 memorial event at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021, in Washington. The highly fragmented campaign points to further political instability. As the only remaining nuclear weapons control pact in place between the US and Russia, the renewal of the New START Treaty is critical to prevent the unravelling of the non-proliferation regime, and a significant weakening of international security. Organisations should assess potential regulatory implications of alternative scenarios for Japan’s future political trajectory, including a potential return to more unstable ruling coalitions. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of Saturn-Uranus Square alignment in 2021. Companies should monitor the summit agenda and assess the likelihood of any potentially business-relevant initiatives. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic impact of the December 2021 Total Solar Eclipse. The new year begins with good news of vaccine. In 2021, climate related geopolitical risks are most likely to accelerate along two trend lines: 1) regulatory or legislative changes aimed at fossil fuel intensive industries, and 2) extreme weather events that disrupt supply chains and upend infrastructure. There is a high potential for major protests and calls for fresh military offensives by Armenian forces to recapture lost territory. Reshuffles are likely and political risk for factions that lose out will increase. The meeting will start the preparation cycle for a five-yearly CPC national congress a year later, in 2022. 2021 will be a year of interactions between the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery and fractured geopolitics. Companies should continue to monitor international diplomatic approaches to Syria to assess the likelihood of an improvement in the sanctions and security environment for international businesses. Businesses should monitor declarations leading up to the anniversary and assess the likelihood and impact of potential protests or conflict flare-ups. As an example, the state of the EU’s pursuit of strategic autonomy and the geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific in 2021 will likely affect the global business environment for several years to come. Secondly, New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) the only remaining nuclear weapons control pact between the US and Russia, the renewal of the treaty is critical to prevent the non-proliferation regime, and weakening of international security. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both ’the worst of times and the best of times’ for the stock market, said analysts. Businesses should assess the impact of alternative election outcomes on the prospect of business-friendly reforms, which have faced opposition from the public. The elections are expected to mobilise relatively large anti-government protests. The elections will be a key test of his authority and his commitment to political reforms despite the challenges and will give potential investors an indication of whether Ethiopia can still live up to its huge investment potential. Countries have planned to ban fuelled vehicles, Netherland by 2025, France by 2030 & UK by 2040. The global COVID-19 situation, rollout of vaccines, geopolitical trends, Union Budget and economic recovery would be the major factors driving investor sentiments in 2021 after a tumultuous year which saw both 'the worst of times and the best of times' for the stock market, said analysts.
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